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    Population immunity of natural infection, primary-series vaccination, and booster vaccination in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic: an observational study

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    Population immunity of natural infection, primary-series vaccination, and booster vaccination in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic.pdf (622.4Kb)
    Date
    2023-08-31
    Author
    Suelen H., Qassim
    Chemaitelly, Hiam
    Ayoub, Houssein H.
    Coyle, Peter
    Tang, Patrick
    Yassine, Hadi M.
    Al Thani, Asmaa A.
    Al-Khatib, Hebah A.
    Hasan, Mohammad R.
    Al-Kanaani, Zaina
    Al-Kuwari, Einas
    Jeremijenko, Andrew
    Kaleeckal, Anvar Hassan
    Latif, Ali Nizar
    Shaik, Riyazuddin Mohammad
    Abdul-Rahim, Hanan F.
    Nasrallah, Gheyath K.
    Al-Kuwari, Mohamed Ghaith
    Butt, Adeel A.
    Al-Romaihi, Hamad Eid
    Al-Thani, Mohamed H.
    Al-Khal, Abdullatif
    Bertollini, Roberto
    Abu-Raddad, Laith J.
    ...show more authors ...show less authors
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    Abstract
    BackgroundWaning of natural infection protection and vaccine protection highlight the need to evaluate changes in population immunity over time. Population immunity of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection or of COVID-19 vaccination are defined, respectively, as the overall protection against reinfection or against breakthrough infection at a given point in time in a given population. MethodsWe estimated these population immunities in Qatar's population between July 1, 2020 and November 30, 2022, to discern generic features of the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. Effectiveness of previous infection, mRNA primary-series vaccination, and mRNA booster (third-dose) vaccination in preventing infection were estimated, month by month, using matched, test-negative, case–control studies. FindingsPrevious-infection effectiveness against reinfection was strong before emergence of Omicron, but declined with time after a wave and rebounded after a new wave. Effectiveness dropped after Omicron emergence from 88.3% (95% CI: 84.8–91.0%) in November 2021 to 51.0% (95% CI: 48.3–53.6%) in December 2021. Primary-series effectiveness against infection was 84.0% (95% CI: 83.0–85.0%) in April 2021, soon after introduction of vaccination, before waning gradually to 52.7% (95% CI: 46.5–58.2%) by November 2021. Effectiveness declined linearly by ∼1 percentage point every 5 days. After Omicron emergence, effectiveness dropped from 52.7% (95% CI: 46.5–58.2%) in November 2021 to negligible levels in December 2021. Booster effectiveness dropped after Omicron emergence from 83.0% (95% CI: 65.6–91.6%) in November 2021 to 32.9% (95% CI: 26.7–38.5%) in December 2021, and continued to decline thereafter. Effectiveness of previous infection and vaccination against severe, critical, or fatal COVID-19 were generally >80% throughout the study duration. InterpretationHigh population immunity against infection may not be sustained beyond a year, but population immunity against severe COVID-19 is durable with slow waning even after Omicron emergence. FundingThe Biomedical Research Program and the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and the Biomathematics Research Core, both at Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Ministry of Public Health, Hamad Medical Corporation, Sidra Medicine, Qatar Genome Programme, Qatar University Biomedical Research Center, and Qatar University Internal Grant ID QUCG-CAS-23/24-114.
    URI
    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589537023002791
    DOI/handle
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2023.102102
    http://hdl.handle.net/10576/47963
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    • Biomedical Sciences [‎819‎ items ]
    • COVID-19 Research [‎849‎ items ]
    • Mathematics, Statistics & Physics [‎789‎ items ]
    • Public Health [‎499‎ items ]

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